On other motorcycle forums, there is a lot of discussion on HD's future. Will they survive? If they do, in what form? Will they be bought by someone? Are the troubles facing Harley indicative of the whole motorcycle industry? What about metric cruisers? What are the implications for Triumph's Speedmaster, America, and the new Thunderbird?
Here is an interesting article on HD. It is worth reading even if you are not an HD fan.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/StockInvestingTrading/is-harley-davidson-over-the-hill.aspx
Here is my take - and I certainly do not claim to be an expert. HD has very successfully marketed the HD lifestyle. The baby boomers bought into it and HD's sales soared. Then several things happend to change the landscape.
Firstly, the economy in the US and in the industrial nations tanked. For most people motorcycles are not a necessity; they are a luxury. This is especially true for HD whose bikes are high end market for the most part. Motorcycle sales are down world wide, but not anything like automobile sales. I have read that Subaru is the only automobile manufacturer that showed a profit last year - and it was certainly not a strong profit.
Secondly, the baby boomers are aging. They have bought their HD's (and metric cruisers) and now some of them are beginning to give up riding due to health and physical issues. They have been the mainstay of HD sales and that market is diminishing. I believe this will also affect the sales of metric cruisers.
Thirdly, HD has nothing in their lineup with the exception of Buell to appeal to a younger market. The younger market is attracted to sport bikes, street fighters, etc. Triumph is in a good position here. And younger riders seem to be liking Triumphs classic line, too. Like Triumph, the Japanese manufacturers are better positioned than HD with bikes that appeal to younger riders - and less expensive than HD.
Fourthly, HD has relied on brand loyalty (part of the HD lifestyle). Though motorcycle riders in general are more brand loyal than most consumers of other products, the younger riders are less so. The HD lifestyle has not appealed to them and their brand loyalty is to other manufacturers. In short, HD is not the motorcycle icon to the younger generations of riders.
How will all of this play out for HD and the motorcycle industry? If I know that, I would become a multi millionaire! My opinion is that there will be a continuing market for cruisers as current younger riders age. Sport bikes are not comfortable and not pillion friendly. Sport bike riders will turn to touring bikes, dual purpose bikes, standard bikes and cruisers as they get older. I think the market for cruisers will diminish some; but I think it will remain a viable market.
HD can survive, They will have to restructure and revamp the lineup. They will have to introduce new models that appeal to younger riders and change their marketing strategy. They have taken a step in this direction with their marketing to female riders.
Triumph could and should do likewise marketing the Speedmaster, America and Bonneville SE to women. These bikes have lower seat height and are easy to handle. The Bonneville SE would make a good entry level bike. It has a lower seat height and lower suspension than the Bonneville and the T100. Triumph should consider a Tiger Cub with a lower seat height. The Tiger is too tall for a lot of males.
If the economy quits dropping and begins recovery next year, I think the T-bird will be a success. And I hope it will just as I hope HD survives.
Just my rambling thoughts.
Here is an interesting article on HD. It is worth reading even if you are not an HD fan.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/StockInvestingTrading/is-harley-davidson-over-the-hill.aspx
Here is my take - and I certainly do not claim to be an expert. HD has very successfully marketed the HD lifestyle. The baby boomers bought into it and HD's sales soared. Then several things happend to change the landscape.
Firstly, the economy in the US and in the industrial nations tanked. For most people motorcycles are not a necessity; they are a luxury. This is especially true for HD whose bikes are high end market for the most part. Motorcycle sales are down world wide, but not anything like automobile sales. I have read that Subaru is the only automobile manufacturer that showed a profit last year - and it was certainly not a strong profit.
Secondly, the baby boomers are aging. They have bought their HD's (and metric cruisers) and now some of them are beginning to give up riding due to health and physical issues. They have been the mainstay of HD sales and that market is diminishing. I believe this will also affect the sales of metric cruisers.
Thirdly, HD has nothing in their lineup with the exception of Buell to appeal to a younger market. The younger market is attracted to sport bikes, street fighters, etc. Triumph is in a good position here. And younger riders seem to be liking Triumphs classic line, too. Like Triumph, the Japanese manufacturers are better positioned than HD with bikes that appeal to younger riders - and less expensive than HD.
Fourthly, HD has relied on brand loyalty (part of the HD lifestyle). Though motorcycle riders in general are more brand loyal than most consumers of other products, the younger riders are less so. The HD lifestyle has not appealed to them and their brand loyalty is to other manufacturers. In short, HD is not the motorcycle icon to the younger generations of riders.
How will all of this play out for HD and the motorcycle industry? If I know that, I would become a multi millionaire! My opinion is that there will be a continuing market for cruisers as current younger riders age. Sport bikes are not comfortable and not pillion friendly. Sport bike riders will turn to touring bikes, dual purpose bikes, standard bikes and cruisers as they get older. I think the market for cruisers will diminish some; but I think it will remain a viable market.
HD can survive, They will have to restructure and revamp the lineup. They will have to introduce new models that appeal to younger riders and change their marketing strategy. They have taken a step in this direction with their marketing to female riders.
Triumph could and should do likewise marketing the Speedmaster, America and Bonneville SE to women. These bikes have lower seat height and are easy to handle. The Bonneville SE would make a good entry level bike. It has a lower seat height and lower suspension than the Bonneville and the T100. Triumph should consider a Tiger Cub with a lower seat height. The Tiger is too tall for a lot of males.
If the economy quits dropping and begins recovery next year, I think the T-bird will be a success. And I hope it will just as I hope HD survives.
Just my rambling thoughts.
